Horse Racing Progressive Staking Knowing when to Stop
Today I want to about progressive staking and examine a typical error that frequently gets punters into major problems – chasing your losses or the progressive staking approach.
We've all been there, the temptation to increase our stake just that little bit bigger on the next selection in the next race. When we have just lost on the last one. It is often known as progressive staking.
Let's take an easy progressive staking scenario: you wager £10 on Golden Horn, and he loses. What do you do? Perhaps you continue with your selection approach and create another choice in the next race — White Willow. The price is 6/4 Favourite.
Rather than putting another £10 bet on White Willow, you choose to ‘chase after' your loss from the last race. You add another £7 to your stake so that when White Willow wins you will select up an additional £10.50 to recuperate the bet you lost on Golden Horn. You are pretty confident that White Willow is a sure fire winner, right?
What takes place if White Willow loses? You are now £27 ‘in the hole'. However you still have a strategy. Your next choice is a dead cert winner at Evens cash. You place your usual £10 stake plus an extra $27 to cover your losses up until now. No need to fret. When this one comes in, you will have re-couped your losses and have a £10 profit to boot.
Let's take a breather here and think about what's going to happen if you play out this progressive staking scenario. You are staking £37 to win a ten pound profit. Think about it — you are effectively getting odds of only around 1 to 4 odds-on about a horse that is Evens cash in the market. That is terrible value!
You might escape this time and your horse may well win. But exactly what if, heaven forbid, your red-hot evens cash certainty cannot win? After just 3 bets, you are down to the tune of £64 when your regular stake is simply £10.
Long losing runs do occur, more frequently than you may think, as well as with short-priced odd horses.
If you invested a day in a gambling establishment at the roulette tables, and evaluated the number of times you experienced a run of 7 or 8 consecutive ‘red' numbers, I would not be at all stunned if you saw this happen 4 or 5 times– in a single day. Here we have practically a 50/50 bet, even money, that the live roulette ball will land in either a red or a black slot. Yet I was astonished to find out that the longest run of the exact same colour (reported) was THIRTY-NINE consecutive reds !!
Imagine if you were betting on black, and saying to yourself each time “no fears, it's got to be black next time … Surely?”.
Let's go back to the more typical incident of a losing run of 7 even money bets. We will be betting on the red.
We position a £1 bet on the first spin. It's black. We chase our loss by ‘doubling up' and next bet £2. If we were to continue in this way, after 6 spins we would be betting £64 to win our original £1.
I truly hope my point is getting across. By chasing your losses you can really rapidly see your stakes reaching preposterous levels, to win your initial, fairly small stake. The risk is way out of percentage compared with the prospective benefit.
The Racing Post runs a tipster competition. All the leading racing journalists are included, representing the country's newspapers and horse racing publications. Take an appearance at the results table any day, and see for yourself the longest losing run.
I looked today, and Racing Post PostData has actually suffered this season a losing run of twenty-seven. Twenty-seven consecutive losers from a professional tipster! And think me, he is not on his own, just the worst transgressor this season so far.
There is an old saying– “Don't throw good money after bad”. If your options do not make earnings from simple level stakes wagering, do not attempt and make them lucrative by tossing more money at them.
If your selections don't earn a profit from easy level stakes wagering, change your system.