Under 2.5 Goals Betting Strategy | Hidden Ways to Identify Value and Win Football Bets

Tony Hammonds
July 7, 2022
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Under 2.5 Goals Betting Strategy

On average the premier league sees just over 2.5 goals per football match although in the 1819 season that topped out at an all-time high of 2.82 goals however there's really value in   backing or laying the 2.5 goals market alone so in this week's upload i'm going to take   you through the strategy and process of trading the 2.5 goals market on betfair's exchange.

The   three main areas that we're going to focus on are where the value is in the 2.5 goals market   hidden ways to identify value and how you can implement the trading strategy and process for   2.5 goals by the end you'll have a better idea on how to approach 2.5 goals hopefully leaving   you cashing out on a regular basis now this is going to be a very good video in comparison to   normal so make sure you hang around to the end.

So where is the value in 2.5 goals obviously we're looking for situations where there's the least possible risk with the maximum possible reward the point where there's no financial
downside in the marketplace but an increased chance of a successful trade be it because something's happening on pitch or something that happens in the marketplace now where is that the
answer of course is unique depending on specific set of variables in that particular situation as we'll get into in just a second but there's one key theme that runs amongst all of this and
that is time because it's not necessarily a case of where but when something will happen.

Now if you can work out when there's most likely to be a goal   you've found yourself an opportunity to enter the marketplace at minimal risk because in the over   under 2.5 goals market there's only two potential outcomes.

So historically speaking 30 of premier   league games see a goal in the first 15 minutes and 75 of games see a goal in the first half.

This   is the kind of data that's extremely useful when it comes to finding your window of opportunity.

So on an individual   level per game you need to be looking out for things like when a goal is likely to be scored   if the teams in play are currently performing in line with their recent form   xg can be extremely helpful in particular when it comes to this one and if they have an above   average scoring rate this study that we'll share on screen done by smarkits shows there's a direct   correlation between team strengths and first goals.

These statistics only paint a basic picture though   so next i want to take a look at the hidden bright spots that will show you where you can find value   in the 2.5 goals betting market.

Now let's get on with the hidden places where you can find value   in a 2.5 goals market where they are and how you can find them now the problem with finding value   is that instinctively people look in the wrong direction altogether they're looking at the wrong   things.

They start looking for predicting the overall match result or if there's likely to   be more than 2.5 goals in that particular game when they should be focusing on things like the   average goal time of the chosen teams in the particular match if there's added incentive to   score early or late in this particular match and also if the home team is going to have an easy   time of controlling this particular match.

You see the secret is spotting where the value is at that   particular point in time once you do that you can exploit that value over the short term and lock in   a profit by cashing out now i'd advise looking at situations like this and asking yourself   is there likely to be a goal soon identifying that stalling point in play can be an extremely   valuable thing.

This is where our football trading strategy around 2.5 goals comes into play because   we need to identify a position within the match and the marketplace for the 2.5 goals market   where there is a natural stalling point there's an imbalance you know between support and resistance. What's actually happening on the pitch and in the marketplace giving us more potential upside   than down so to identify that there's two things that we can take a look at.

First of all we can see   the in-game action sometimes it's very obvious when the flow of play has completely changed   and secondly we can look at the marketplace because the natural time decay within the market   will stall and slow down as the traders and bettors that are in that 2.5 goals market start   to react and change their betting behavior.

Now i'm going to share with you a few arbitrary pointers   which will help you anticipate and recognize one of these situations ahead of time and clearly see   it for what it is as it actually happens because that point is the key point in time where you want   to strike in the unders and over 2.5 market you want to open your position.

So the first one is   average goal time so if we're betting in play opening a position trading the match as it's   happening then we want to know what the average goal time is for that particular team.

We don't   want it to be broad we want to be very specific so i'll share with you a link in description down   below but you can find teams individual specific goal times which will then allow you to understand   when you see this change of play on pitch and you see the market sentiment change where you know   the time decay no longer wants to continue it's very typical of the situation there's an increased   chance of a goal and therefore you can find yourself that in balanced situation that we're   looking for.

The second one is their current form so are they playing in line with their current   form obviously we've got xg ratings if they've recently been playing to a certain xg and they're   performing in line with that right now coupled up with the average goal time then you can be more   and more confident and clear about what you're actually doing in terms of opening the position   or leaving a position open for a little bit longer.

Or even close that out if that's not transpiring   on the pitch so they're really important pointers and then finally the exchange market activity is   often very reflective of the likely chance so it's
not unusual to see situations we'll share one on   screen now where the price completely stalls for a substantial amount of time offering you know very   little downside if you're to go against the price action.

Just to reiterate here we're not looking   to make a monster profit on a one-off short-term situation we're looking to find situations where   there's an imbalance where statistically over the
longer period of time we're going to emerge on top   so we're limiting our risk the whole time that is the main objective.

The last thing i want to move on to is implementing your strategy for trading at 2.5   goals market seeing what we're actually gonna do so 2.5 goals is an extremely popular marketplace   there's a lot of liquidity a lot of volume passes through it and it can be highly attractive because   you can get large stakes matched.

However with there only been two possible outcomes to the   overs and unders market it's important to have a structured systematic way that you approach every   single market over and over again managing your position effectively so with that in mind here   are a few pointers first of all you want to do some pre-game research touching on those previous   points i've already mentioned average goal times current xg if teams currently performing in line   with its potential because when it comes to opening a position in play things are going to   happen quite quickly emotions can become engaged quite easily but you want to manage your position   as effectively as possible and the best way to do that and understand where you should be opening   your position is by knowing what you expect to see.

Now part of that planning can also be the second   point i want to make which is breaking up stakes because as i've already previously mentioned it's   not necessarily a case of where but when so you can't always choose when a goal is going to go in   when the flow of play is going to change you can observe and react to that which is a large   part of trading in place successfully but if
you break up your stakes so that it's logical   and you can offset your position potentially maybe opening sort of the first third of your trade at   one specific point in time when you see what
is happening that you expect from your pre-game   research then staking up a little bit further you know five minutes afterwards coming towards   the end of the first half that's highly advisable
too because it gives you you know the best average   position you can have if a goal goes in in that mean time then you're obviously going to be in a   positive positio.

Aanyway so i'd advise you breaking up your stakes and averaging out that position   what that shouldn't be confused with though is the complete opposite of risk management   which is doubling up stakes because you're losing.

You need to do this with a conscious reason which   is logical and beneficial to your overall position still managing your risk all the while so the next   point in managing your position has to be managing the what ifs and it's important to realize that   you should know the answer to this before the game even starts before your trade is open before you   are engaged in that trading position so what are you going to do if a goal goes in straight away   and the trade travels in your favor.

Are you going to lock out the profit indefinitely and walk away   from it hedging up completely are you going to close out your net position and let it run as   a free bet further into the game are you going to offset your position so that you're managing your   risk but you still believe the trade is going to move positively in your favor or not.

You know if   this doesn't happen in game then how long is it going to be until you exit the trade have you   already picked a predefined exit point considering that you know it may be a losing trade be it on   time or activity in game it's absolutely crucial that you understand all these different variables   how the trade is going to plan out as well as what you expect to see on pitch before you even   open the trade to manage your position effectively.

So when it comes to trading 2.5 goals markets on   the betting exchanges it's really important that you look at statistics the information   available to you you have some kind of trading plan and you're looking for that imbalance in the   market that's going to favor you over a longer period of trades even if this particular trade   doesn't go in your favor so do your homework know your stats and understand where those bright spots   are likely to be before the match even begins.

Author Tony Hammonds

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