What is a Reverse Forecast Bet? A Quick Guide

Pick two names. If they finish first and second in any order, you’re paid. That is the heart of a reverse forecast bet. But what is a reverse forecast bet? In sports betting, this type of wager stands out among advanced wagers because it removes the order risk typically found in many exotic bet types.

What this bet actually covers

A reverse forecast bet asks a single question: will your two selections fill the top two spots, regardless of which one wins?

• Choose Horse A and Horse B.
• If the result is A then B, you win.
• If the result is B then A, you also win.
• If either A or B misses the top two, you lose.

In many countries this is called a quinella. In UK and Irish fixed-odds menus it shows up as a reverse forecast, sometimes labeled as a reversed exacta.

The “any order” coverage is the entire selling point. You are paying to remove order risk between two names you rate highly—a subtle yet effective wager strategy in sports betting for those looking to place only a modest risk.

How it works behind the scenes

A reverse forecast is treated as two separate straight forecasts.

• Leg 1: A to beat B
• Leg 2: B to beat A

That means your stake is doubled. A 1 unit reverse forecast is two 1 unit wagers, so 2 units in total. When the race settles, only one leg can win. If A beats B, Leg 1 pays and Leg 2 loses. Your net payout is the winning forecast return minus the combined stake.

Because you are funding two outcomes, the chance of collecting is higher than a single straight forecast on one order, though your net profit is tempered by the losing leg.

How to place one, step by step

Online racebooks and betting apps typically tuck forecasts inside the race’s special markets. The flow is consistent:

1. Open the race and find Forecast/Exacta markets
2. Switch to Reverse Forecast or Any Order option
3. Pick your two runners
4. Enter a per-line stake while remembering the total will be doubled
5. Confirm and place the bet

At a retail counter, you can ask for “reverse forecast on A and B,” then state your unit stake. The clerk will repeat the total outlay to confirm both lines are funded.

Two extra checks help:

• Look for field size and non-runner notices before you wager
• Read the provider’s rules on dead heats and non-runners, since partial voids or split dividends can apply

Why stakes and returns look the way they do

Reverse forecasts live in the family of “exotic” racing bets. They rely on the interplay of two prices, not just one, and they hinge on the rare event where your two picks go 1 and 2. A little math frames expectations.

• In an evenly matched field of n runners, the chance your two named horses finish first and second in any order is roughly 2 divided by n times n minus 1.
  Example: with 8 runners, that is 2/(8×7) = 2/56 ≈ 3.6% under a uniform model.

Real races are not uniform. Two short-priced favorites raise your actual chance above that simple baseline. Still, it is far less likely than a single win bet on the favorite, which is why reverse forecast returns can look enticing on paper and painful when you miss.

Because a reverse forecast is two lines, always think in totals:

• Total stake = 2 × unit stake
• Return if you win = payout from the correct order leg
• Net profit = return minus total stake

Short-priced pairings produce modest returns. Insert a bigger-price runner and the return jumps sharply if it hits, while your probability of success falls.

Reverse forecast vs straight forecast vs quinella vs trifecta

Here is a compact way to see the differences.

A useful mental model: the reverse forecast is a “box” of two exactas. You buy both orders and pay for both. In sports betting, reverse forecast bets are considered one of the more approachable advanced wagers, offering a balance between risk and reward.

When a reverse forecast shines

Use it when you are focused on two specific names but the win order looks like a coin flip.

Common spots:

• Small or medium fields where two runners look clear of the rest
• A standout favorite and a solid second pick who matches the conditions
• A tactical race where pace, draw, or ride could sway the winner between two standouts

You will see many bettors pair the market favorite with a value contender. That mix keeps the probability reasonable while allowing a richer potential payout if the value runner wins or runs second to the jolly.

Practical strategies that keep you disciplined

• Start with the race shape. Aim at races where the top two seem well separated from the pack based on form, pace, and conditions.
• Decide your pairing first, then choose the bet type. If you are genuinely convinced about the exact order, the straight forecast costs half as much. If you feel the order is too close to call, box the pair with a reverse forecast.
• Be selective about outsiders. One longshot can lift returns, but avoid pairing two speculative picks unless you accept a very low hit rate.
• Cap your per-line stake. Remember you are placing two lines, so each wager counts. Keep stakes consistent with your bankroll plan.
• Avoid chasing with combination forecasts unless you have a structured reason. Covering three or more horses explodes cost quickly.

Bankroll and risk management

Treat reverse forecasts as occasional shots, not your daily bread.

• Set a fixed exotic-bet budget per meeting
• Keep unit stakes small and uniform
• Record your bets and results to calibrate selectivity
• Favor clearer form lines over chaotic big-field sprints
• Take breaks and avoid tilting after near misses

Because this bet needs two things to go right on the same race, streaky results are normal. Your calm process is the edge you control.

Worked examples

Example 1: Two short-priced runners
Suppose A is 2/1 and B is 5/2. You place a reverse forecast at 5 per line, so 10 total.

• If A beats B, the A over B forecast dividend pays on one line. Say it returns 24 to a 5 stake. Your net is 24 minus 10 = 14.
• If B beats A, the B over A dividend may be similar or slightly different depending on pools and book rules. You still subtract the same total stake.

The key takeaway is not the exact figure, which varies by provider, but the arithmetic: only one leg wins, and you deduct both legs to find net profit.

Example 2: Favorite and a lively outsider
Pair A at 2/1 with C at 12/1. Reverse forecast at 2 per line, 4 total.

• If A beats C or C beats A, the payout will usually be higher than in the favorite vs second favorite pairing, since the outsider is in the mix.
• You will lose more often, but a winning outcome can more than cover several prior attempts.

Example 3: Why field size matters
In a 5-runner race with two obvious standouts, covering both orders gives you a realistic crack at a return. In a 16-runner handicap with many plausible contenders, the same wager becomes far more speculative.

Regional naming and small rule wrinkles

• UK and Ireland: reverse forecast in fixed-odds menus, tricast for the exact 1–2–3
• US and Australia: quinella for any-order 1–2, exacta for exact order, exacta box to cover both orders with separate lines
• Pools vs fixed odds: some places settle through tote pools, others by proprietary forecast formulas. Returns can differ by region and operator.

House rules worth scanning:

• Non-runners: one leg may void or the bet may convert to a straight forecast. Policies vary.
• Dead heats: forecasts can split returns according to the rulebook. Expect reductions in that case.

A quick read of the rules page for your bookmaker saves aggravation.

Choosing combinations when more than two are strong

Sometimes three names stand out. A disciplined way to cover them in pairs:

• Make a shortlist of A, B, C
• Form three reverse forecasts: A–B, A–C, B–C
• Keep the same unit stake for each pair

Be aware that this approach multiplies cost. Three reverse forecasts at 2 per line is 3 × 4 = 12 total. Your strike rate can improve, but the bankroll pressure is real. Many bettors only do this on marquee races where form confidence is high.

Common mistakes to avoid

• Forgetting the stake doubles: the slip shows 2 lines. Check the total before you click.
• Boxing two outsiders in a large field without a clear angle: entertaining, but long odds of success.
• Misreading pace or draw: if your second pick relies on a soft lead and the draw or pressure says otherwise, reconsider the pair.
• Ignoring non-runner rules: a late scratch can alter the bet type or void a leg.
• Overusing combination coverage: costs run away quickly, and the marginal value of the third or fourth selection can be thin.

A fast way to assess a candidate race

Use this short diagnostic before you commit:

• Can you name the two most likely top finishers with conviction?
• Is the field size modest, or is there at least a clear gap in form behind your pair?
• Are conditions, trip, and going aligned for both selections?
• Would you feel comfortable picking the exact order? If not, that tilts toward the reverse forecast.
• Does the total stake fit your plan for the day?

If you can answer yes to most of these, you have the right spot for a reverse forecast wager.

Quick reference

• What it is: two selections to finish first and second in any order
• How it is staked: two lines, one for each order
• When it pays: only when both are in the top two
• When to use: you are confident in the pair, unsure about order
• Main alternatives: straight forecast for exact order, quinella in regions using pool bets, trifecta for exact 1–2–3
• Core risk: low hit rate compared to single-win bets, double the stake vs a single forecast
• Core reward: protection against the wrong order while keeping exposure focused on two names

Reverse forecasts reward clarity about the top two and humility about which one edges the other. When used with care, they add a precise, tactical tool to a bettor’s kit without ballooning complexity—and are a fine example of an advanced wager within the realm of sports betting.