How NCAA Football Betting Differs from NFL

Michael
November 5, 2015
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college-football-team-map

NCAA football has been described as a pure football game. This is because College or NCAA players are out there on the field playing simply for glory and school pride.

  • They don't get paid and for many of them they are simply hoping to get a shot at the big time that is the NFL.
  • NCAA College football has no salary cap imposed on it and there's nothing stopping a school from signing many top recruits in the country.

In fact, a recent report showing that the top high school possible recruits revealed that a strong number had USC and Texas on their list of college choices.

The prognosis of this is that good players are keener to play at a good school and as a consequence the good schools get better and the poor schools end up getting worse.

Every year out we hear the names of leading programs like Ohio State over and over.

NCAA football is a freer game compared to the NFL for several reasons.

NCAA football betting lines from Bovada
Example of how NCAA college game lines are displayed at Bovada sportsbook.
  • NCAA Coaches are not scared to attempt different techniques in plays and choose to run alternatives.
  • As a result the NCAA points tally can be way higher than in a NFL game. 

One trap that many college football betting players fall into is to approach the games as though they were betting on a traditional NFL handicapping game.

It's not the case and this is why.

  • In the NFL each and every player-no matter how bad they seem-are among the leading players in the football game.
  • In NCAA college football, there are handfuls of NFL type players with ratings of only average players.
  • In the NFL, you would never ever see the NCAA football betting lines spread in between two teams in the 40s.
  • It's a typical occurrence each week in NCAA football.

Yes, those favorite teams cover too. One element of the NCAA game that has to be on any betting mind is inspiration.

If the game showcases two bitter rivals, the betting might be a hot contest no matter what the skill level.

If nothing else, the assumed worse team might be closer to the favorite in betting terms.

Coaching Matters

It's crucial therefore to evaluate the coaches.

  • What kind of coach does each team have?
  • Does the coach prefer to run frequently?
  • Does the coach prefer to fire away even when the betting game is won?

Here's an example.

For many years Air Force NCAA football team was a team that would run the ball 80% of the time and effectively too.

If they were playing a team that was soft on the run you would be keen to spot them as a betting opportunity. 

By understanding the team's tactical plan, you can anticipate the betting result much better.

If Air Force were playing a poorer football team, record wise, that had a strong run defense, what would you do?

If you were a NCAA football betting handicapper that takes a look at wins/loses, you would more than likely fail.

In the pros, teams are more apt to adjust. If the run is not working, they go to the air.

In NCAA football, some programs are constructed in a specific way and they stick to their NCAA game strategy for the many part.

If the NCAA team is developed as a running powerhouse, they are going to keep going at the run, since that's all they can truly do.

The betting lesson here is to not take a look at NCAA football like you would the NFL.

While it's still betting on the game of football, it isn't the exact same game when it comes to judging the outcomes.

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