Risk of Ruin Formula: Calculating the Chance of Going Broke

Risk of Ruin Formula: Calculating the Chance of Going Broke

An Edge Is Not a Shield A winning strategy can still be staked into disaster. Six straight even-money losses turn a $1,000 bankroll into about $735, $531, or $262 when each wager risks 5%, 10%, or 20% of the current…
How Big Should a Betting Unit Be as the Bankroll Grows?

How Big Should a Betting Unit Be as the Bankroll Grows?

Resizing the Unit A larger balance may support larger stakes—but only after the growth proves durable. Suppose a $500 bankroll grows to $800. A $10 unit has fallen from 2% of the bankroll to 1.25%, so an adjustment may be…
When Full Kelly Feels Too Big: Using Fractional Kelly to Limit Volatility

When Full Kelly Feels Too Big: Using Fractional Kelly to Limit Volatility

The real conflict An optimal bet can still be too rough to live with. A 12% wager may look defensible on a spreadsheet. But five consecutive losses would reduce the bankroll to roughly 53% of its starting value—before accounting for…
How to Use the Kelly Criterion Without Wiping Out a Bankroll

How to Use the Kelly Criterion Without Wiping Out a Bankroll

When the Formula Overreaches A precise stake is only as trustworthy as the assumptions behind it. After four losses, a model spots another apparent advantage—and Kelly calls for 18% of the remaining bankroll. The calculation may be correct, yet the…
Bankroll Management for Beginners: Starting a Safe First Betting Plan

Bankroll Management for Beginners: Starting a Safe First Betting Plan

After the Deposit A fresh balance can feel bigger than it really is. The moment after a first deposit is often the most dangerous: the balance looks usable, every match looks tempting, and a few quick bets seem harmless. Then…