In this article we're going to talk about value bets and how to find them in order to take your betting to the next level.
So first of all what is a value bet? Well essentially it's a bet where the outcome is more likely to happen than what the odds of the bookmaker are implying, so here we're going to be talking about implied probability as well so I'm going to try and break it down to be as simple as possible so stick with me.
Let's just show you a quick example of what I mean by a value bet.
So let's take a really simple example of flipping a coin so we know that it's 50% chance for heads or tails to be the outcome of that flip.
Now let's say there's a bookmaker offering odds on that event and one bookmaker is being quite generous and offering odds of on it to be heads now we know that the percentage chance of heads is 50% but those odds from the bookmaker of actually imply a probability of 47% so the probability from the bookmakers point of view is lower than the actual probability which we know so it's actually a value bet for us to bet on that every single time.
Calculating implied probability from odds is a key skill for identifying value bets.
With decimal odds, simple maths reveals the probability, as 1 divided by the odds, multiplied by 100.
Fractional odds involve adding parts of the fraction, turning it into an equation of 100 over the sum.
Moneyline odds, common in American sports, swing between positive and negative figures, requiring separate approaches.
Positive odds divide 100 by the sum, negative need minus odds divided by odds plus 100.
Understanding these conversions sharpens your betting approach, making it easier to pinpoint when a bookie has miscalculated the likelihood of an outcome against what they offer.
Now you are going to be very hard pressed to find a bookmaker that is that generous when it comes to offering value quite like that but hopefully that gives you the right idea when it comes to understanding probabilities and comparing it to the odds on offer now I do have some key points to also keep in mind when it comes to picking value bets so here they are…
Many bettors overlook the importance of objective assessment.
Bias can skew evaluations of a team's performance, causing risky wagers.
Avoid betting emotionally, and always consider the bookmaker’s margin in the odds.
This hidden edge ensures their profitability and can affect value.
By maintaining a cool head and recalling these elements, your strategy becomes more refined and your judgement more reliable.
The first one is to specialize.
If you can specialize on a particular sport or even a particular league or competition the narrower you can get the more information you can receive and digest on in particular sports then the better you'll be at spotting value in market so for example our horse racing expert is very rarely found betting on football and the same goes for our World Champion Tipster.
Technological tools bolster any bettor's arsenal.
Software offering odds comparisons across bookmakers can reveal potential value bets.
These tools highlight discrepancies, showing where odds differ and where you might find an edge.
Betting calculators also serve well, breaking down odds into intuitive data, so use them to augment your betting approach.
Such resources assist in making informed decisions and can turn potential insight into betting advantage, often steering punters towards markets they might have otherwise overlooked.
He favours basketball over any other sport.
“Basketball became my favourite sport I started to practice basketball and I started with NBA League but last five six years so I'm watching also EuroLeague and regional basketball”
So the more of an expert you can become on a singular event the better when it comes to finding value bets.
Our second key to finding value bets and exploiting them is to actually understand probabilities now we did cover that briefly in the example of the coin flip where we actually look at the implied probabilities from the bookmaker but the more you can understand those comparing them to your own probabilities and own assessments of a match the better.
Market trends significantly sway betting values.
Public opinion often inflates odds when high-profile teams always receive undue attention.
Observing these patterns helps in identifying value, understanding when a market might be influenced by external factors or sheer popularity.
In betting, staying alert to trends offers a strategic edge, enabling informed decisions instead of speculative wagers.
The third key is to actually go and set your own odds.
Now this is a great exercise you can do in order to understand how odds are compiled and basically use your own probabilities and assessment of a match and come up with some betting odds of your own you can then compare them to the actual market and if your odds are better then there's potentially value there to be had.
Now the fourth key is to continuously review your results so if you do that exercise of setting your odds over the long term.
Let's say try a month to begin with and see how your results have compared when you compare them to the bookmakers and then how your bets have done as well that's better the more you can review and the more you can learn the better you'll be in future and the last key we have for you is to persevere when it comes to value bets they're not always easy to find and they could also lose as well them we're not saying they're guaranteed to win but the more chances you have being the right side of the probabilities the better so keep at it like any other skill it's going to take a long time to master.
Keeping detailed records of each wager sharpens your betting insight over time.
Record the stakes, odds, decisions, and outcomes of each bet.
Detailed logs aid in identifying patterns and refining strategies, pointing out past mistakes and successful moves.
Analysing these records, especially over longer periods, keeps you informed and adaptable.
It refines strategies and draws lessons from past missteps.
Persistent review and reflection ensure continuous improvement as you evolve in your betting efforts.
Our horse racing experts have spent years diving into the numbers and refining their strategies when it comes to betting so we're not gonna say it's gonna happen overnight but it's well worth doing so – if you want to profit in the long term on betting.